Solar Calculator Arizona 2026
Estimate savings under Arizona net billing, where your utility's export rate matters as much as the desert sun.
1 Your location & bill
Sets a representative residential rate and sun-hours for your state — edit the rate below to match your actual bill.
US residential average is ~18.2¢/kWh (EIA, January–August 2026), from ~12.5¢ (ND) to ~46¢ (HI). The higher your rate, the faster solar pays back.
2 Federal credit
For owned systems installed in 2026, the calculator applies no federal credit (the 25D residential credit expired end-2025). For a lease/PPA, it applies the credit the provider passes on — set the effective amount below.
Defaults to 0% for owned (2026 reality) and 30% for lease/PPA. Edit if your situation differs (e.g. a state credit, or future federal changes).
3 Net metering
Net metering varies hugely by state and utility. California's NEM 3.0 pays roughly a quarter of retail for exports, which is why self-consumption and batteries matter so much there. Pick what matches your utility.
Share of your solar used on-site (saves full retail). The rest is exported. A battery raises this toward ~70–80%, which matters most under reduced-export rules.
4 System & cost
US residential averages ~$2.50–3.50/W before any credit. Enter your quoted price.
Indicative estimates only. Federal, state and utility rules change and vary widely — net-metering terms and rates differ by utility even within a state. The federal credit situation is in flux; confirm current rules (and your ownership type's eligibility) before deciding. Not tax advice.
How this is calculated
Federal credit (2026): the residential 30% ITC (Section 25D) expired for owned systems placed in service after 31 December 2025. So this defaults to 0% for cash/loan purchases. A lease or PPA can still pass through ~30% because the provider claims the commercial 48E credit (through ~2027) — selecting "Lease/PPA" applies that. Net cost = gross cost − federal credit applied.
Payback = net cost ÷ annual savings; 25-year savings applies modest rate escalation and panel degradation. State rates and sun-hours are representative defaults (EIA-based) — edit them to your actual figures. Verify current federal/state/utility rules before purchasing.
How Arizona Solar Pays Off in 2026
Arizona buys some of the cheapest sunshine in America: a well-sited rooftop array produces roughly 5.1 kWh per day for every kilowatt of panels, while the statewide average residential rate sits near 14.5 cents per kWh (APS and SRP plans mostly land in the 12-14 cent range, TEP closer to 15-16). Installed prices around $2.70 per watt run below the national average, so the raw production math is excellent. What changed is how exports are paid, and, for 2026, the loss of the federal purchase credit. Run your numbers in our national solar calculator, then check the export rules below, because they decide half your savings.
Net billing: every Arizona utility pays a different export rate
Arizona ended retail net metering in 2017. Under net billing, solar you use directly offsets full retail price, but surplus kWh sent to the grid earn a utility-set export rate that is far lower. As of mid-2026, approximate credits are:
- APS: about 6.2 cents per exported kWh
- TEP: about 5.1 cents per exported kWh
- SRP: roughly 1.9 cents per exported kWh, paired with demand-based solar price plans
Why interconnection timing matters
Export rates for new applicants step down about 10 percent per year (APS resets each September), but the rate in effect when your system is interconnected is locked for 10 years. Applying before a scheduled step-down can preserve a meaningfully higher credit for a decade, so confirm the current schedule with your utility or the Arizona Corporation Commission before you sign.
The federal credit is gone for buyers; here is what remains
The 30 percent federal residential credit (Section 25D) ended for owned systems placed in service after December 31, 2025, so a cash or loan purchase in 2026 gets no federal credit. Leases and PPAs can still pass through roughly 30 percent in value via the provider's Section 48E credit, expected through about 2027. Arizona keeps its own modest stack: a 25 percent state income tax credit capped at $1,000, plus sales tax and property tax exemptions on solar equipment. Verify details on DSIRE before budgeting.
A worked APS example
An 8 kW system at $2.70 per watt costs about $21,600, or $20,600 after the state credit. It generates near 14,900 kWh per year. If 60 percent is self-consumed at 14.5 cents and 40 percent exported at 6.2 cents, first-year savings land around $1,660, a payback of roughly 12-13 years, faster if rates keep rising. Model your own split with the solar savings calculator.
Beating a low export rate
Because self-used solar is worth two to seven times the export credit, shifting load into daylight is the real lever: pre-cool the house, run pools and laundry midday, and consider storage sized with our battery bank calculator. Charging a car from your panels via the EV solar charging calculator also converts cheap exports into avoided retail power. Arizona's rules resemble California's NEM 3 shift, compared in our NEM 3 battery calculator. Policies move yearly, so verify current tariffs with APS, SRP or TEP.
Solar generation in Arizona, month by month
From PVGIS 5.3 (European Commission Joint Research Centre), ERA5 solar data 2005-2023: a 1 kW grid-tied system at the best fixed angle with 14% system losses. Figures are the average of Phoenix, Tucson, Flagstaff. The calculator above uses 5.1 kWh per kW per day as its default.
| Month | kWh per kW per day | 3 kW system, kWh in the month |
|---|---|---|
| January | 4.8 | 447 |
| February | 5.3 | 452 |
| March | 5.8 | 539 |
| April | 5.9 | 535 |
| May | 5.6 | 520 |
| June | 5.2 | 470 |
| July | 4.6 | 427 |
| August | 4.7 | 441 |
| September | 5.1 | 455 |
| October | 5.3 | 492 |
| November | 4.9 | 445 |
| December | 4.4 | 409 |
Solar output by city
| City | kWh/kW/day | kWh/kW/year | 3 kW, kWh/year | Best tilt |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Flagstaff | 5.3 | 1,940 | 5,821 | 36° |
| Tucson | 5.1 | 1,861 | 5,583 | 33° |
| Phoenix | 5.0 | 1,829 | 5,488 | 34° |
What each system size produces in Arizona
| System | kWh per day | kWh per month | kWh per year |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 kW | 5.1 | 156 | 1,877 |
| 2 kW | 10.3 | 313 | 3,754 |
| 3 kW | 15.4 | 469 | 5,631 |
| 5 kW | 25.7 | 782 | 9,384 |
| 10 kW | 51.4 | 1,564 | 18,768 |
Solar calculators for other US states
Localized rates, net-metering and incentive context for more states — or use the national USA solar calculator (all 50 states + DC selectable).
Frequently asked questions
Export rates are set per utility under net billing: APS credits about 6.2 cents per kWh, TEP about 5.1 cents, and SRP roughly 1.9 cents. Rates for new applicants step down about 10 percent annually, but your rate at interconnection is locked for 10 years, so confirm the current figure with your utility before signing.
No. The Section 25D residential credit ended for owned systems placed in service after December 31, 2025. In 2026 a purchased system gets no federal credit, though lease and PPA providers can often pass through roughly 30 percent in value via their own Section 48E credit, expected through about 2027.
Arizona provides a state income tax credit of 25 percent of system cost capped at $1,000, a sales tax exemption on solar equipment, and a property tax exemption so the added home value is not taxed. These are modest but survive the federal sunset; check DSIRE for current terms.
Often yes, especially on SRP where exports earn under 2 cents while retail power costs 13-16 cents. A battery lets you store midday surplus for evening use at full retail value and can reduce demand charges on SRP solar plans. Size storage against your evening load rather than your whole daily usage.
About 15 kWh a day or 5,631 kWh a year on average, from about 13.2 a day in December to 17.8 a day in April, according to PVGIS data for panels at the best fixed angle. Shading, dust and orientation change the result.
Learn more
Sources & standards
Export rates, incentive rules and the federal tax credit change year to year — these are the authoritative bodies this calculator’s Arizona figures are checked against.
- PVGIS 5.3 — Photovoltaic Geographical Information System — European Commission, Joint Research Centre
Monthly and annual output per kW for Phoenix, Tucson, Flagstaff (ERA5, 2005-2023; 14% losses, optimal fixed angle). Retrieved 2026-11-09. - DSIRE — Database of State Incentives for Renewables & Efficiency — N.C. Clean Energy Technology Center
The reference database for Arizona’s state tax credit, sales-tax and property-tax exemptions cited in this article. - Arizona Corporation Commission — Arizona Corporation Commission (ACC)
The regulator that set the 2017 shift from net metering to net billing and approves each utility’s annual export-rate step-down. - Home energy tax credits — Residential Clean Energy Credit — Internal Revenue Service (IRS)
The federal rules behind the Section 25D credit sunset for owned systems this article explains. - PVWatts Calculator — National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL)
The modeling tool behind the roughly 5.5 kWh/kW/day production estimate this article uses for well-sited Arizona rooftops. - Electric Power Monthly, table 5.6.B: average price of electricity by state — U.S. Energy Information Administration
Residential prices by state, year to date through August 2026. Used for the state electricity rates in the state list.